← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 71% | 74% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.71 | value: +5% |
| Sampdoria win | 10% | 8% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −1.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 67% | 1.61 | value: +7% |
| Under | 40% | 33% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · Sampdoria |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | ⚽ | Alfred Duncan · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · ACF Fiorentina |
| 81' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · ACF Fiorentina |
| 88' | ⚽ | Aleksa Terzić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksa Terzić · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 668.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1782.80 | 1538.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.00 | 0.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| league points | 42.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 28.39 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.16 |