← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 39% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +8% |
| AS Roma win | 31% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ola Solbakken · AS Roma |
| 74' | ⚽ | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 84' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 86' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2518.00 | 662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1790.66 | 1838.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.98 | 24.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 1.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.82 |
| league points | 49.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 1.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 28.46 | 29.32 |
| state index | 0.41 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 2.90 |