← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 55% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.85 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 19% | 19% | 5.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +10% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Isaac Success · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Felix Afena-Gyan · Cremonese |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Emanuele Valeri · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 326.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1707.84 | 1525.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.13 | 16.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.31 |