← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 50% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
| Torino FC win | 21% | 20% | 4.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 42% | 2.66 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Torino FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ivan Ilić · Torino FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ricardo Rodríguez · Torino FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Wilfried Singo · Torino FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andreaw Gravillon · Torino FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 690.00 | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1839.90 | 1694.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.60 | -4.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| league points | 61.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.35 | 26.40 |
| state index | 1.32 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.02 |