← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 34% | 30% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 43% | 2.97 | value: +29% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 33% | 27% | 2.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 65% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Musa Barrow · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Simone Verdi · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Hellas Verona FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1620.19 | 1733.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.19 | 40.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| league points | 23.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.79 |