← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.27 | value: +8% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 20% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 53% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 47% | 2.69 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 37' | ⚽ | Edoardo Bove · AS Roma |
| 40' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Thauvin · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 654.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1819.86 | 1717.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.79 | 12.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 53.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 8.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 1.38 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.11 | 25.57 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.25 |