β Serie A 2022-23 Β· Sat, Apr 15, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. La Penna
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 64% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 13% | 8% | 7.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli β1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hellas Verona FC β1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 42% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 58% | 2.28 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |