← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 53% | 52% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.58 | fair |
| Spezia win | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SS Lazio +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marcos Antônio · SS Lazio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 84' | 🟥 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| ⚽ |
| Marcos Antônio · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 72.00 | 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1587.41 | 1830.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.71 | 18.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| league points | 26.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.26 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 28.97 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.68 |