← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 34% | 37% | 2.86 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.98 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SS Lazio +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 43% | 2.77 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 42' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ivan Provedel · SS Lazio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabio Miretti · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 676.00 | 707.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1819.78 | 1918.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.11 | 36.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.72 |
| league points | 55.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.44 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.80 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.85 |