← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 43% | 37% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +5% |
| Cremonese win | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cremonese −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Mehdi Léris · Sampdoria |
| 35' | ⚽ | Paolo Ghiglione · Cremonese |
| 37' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · Sampdoria |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luka Lochoshvili · Cremonese |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marios Oikonomou · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Afena-Gyan · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 189.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1488.05 | 1469.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.48 | 1.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 7.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 1.23 |