← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 67% | 72% | 1.44 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.86 | fair |
| Spezia win | 12% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Daniel Maldini · Spezia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 45' | 🟨 | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Spezia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Simone Bastoni · Spezia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Spezia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 29 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 646.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1805.81 | 1580.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.39 | 15.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.96 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 27.03 |
| state index | 1.53 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.48 |