← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 71% | 73% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.01 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sampdoria −1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Tammy Abraham · AS Roma |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · Sampdoria |
| 21' | 🟨 | Leonardo Spinazzola · AS Roma |
| 49' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Sampdoria |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · Sampdoria |
| 52' | 🟥 | Jeison Murillo · Sampdoria |
| 57' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · AS Roma |
| 60' | 🟨 | Chris Smalling · AS Roma |
| 68' | 🟨 | Flavio Paoletti · Sampdoria |
| 70' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Sampdoria |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 640.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1814.29 | 1553.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.69 | 1.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| league points | 47.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.99 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.09 |