← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 44% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.29 | value: +20% |
| AC Monza win | 26% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| AC Monza +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marlon · AC Monza |
| 55' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · AC Monza |
| 80' | 🟨 | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days |
| 213.00 |
| 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1609.49 | 1755.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.70 | 1.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| league points | 34.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.63 |