β Serie A 2022-23 Β· Sun, Mar 19, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 32% | 27% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.12 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Sampdoria +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | β½ | Manolo Gabbiadini Β· Sampdoria |
| 35' | β½ | Manolo Gabbiadini Β· Sampdoria |
| 42' | π¨ | Filip ΔuriΔiΔ Β· Sampdoria |
| 83' | π¨ | Bram Nuytinck Β· Sampdoria |
| 85' | π¨ | Alessandro Zanoli Β· Sampdoria |
| 88' | β½ | Davide Faraoni Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | π¨ | Ondrej Duda Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | π¨ | Diego Coppola Β· Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | β½ | Alessandro Zanoli Β· Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1476.82 | 1557.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.59 | -11.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.66 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -1.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | β |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.92 |