← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.41 | value: +6% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| AC Milan +0.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.17 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 45' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pierre Kalulu · AC Milan |
| 68' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 290.00 | 1264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1719.51 | 1878.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.24 | -0.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.71 |