← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 49% | 55% | 1.99 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 23% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Monza −0.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.24 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 43' | 🟨 | Leonardo Sernicola · Cremonese |
| 45' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 61' | ⚽ | Daniel Ciofani · Cremonese |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cyriel Dessers · Cremonese |
| 69' | ⚽ | Carlos Augusto · AC Monza |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 71' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · Cremonese |
| 73' | 🟨 | Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentin Antov · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 198.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1614.75 | 1471.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.60 | 7.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -1.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.96 |