← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 70% | 71% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.92 | value: +5% |
| Sampdoria win | 10% | 7% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sampdoria −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 45% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 55% | 2.09 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Tommaso Augello · Sampdoria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Filip Đuričić · Sampdoria |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Sampdoria |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nicolò Fagioli · Juventus FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matías Soulé · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 680.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1821.96 | 1479.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.60 | 1.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 50.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 7.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 1.12 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 22.98 |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.01 |