← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, Mar 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 51% | 54% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 22% | 22% | 4.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Cremonese −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Davide Frattesi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Felix Afena-Gyan · Cremonese |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 62' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Cremonese |
| 83' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Cremonese |
| 87' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · Cremonese |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nedim Bajrami · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 613.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1641.74 | 1484.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.25 | 4.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 8.91 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 23.92 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.68 |