← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 35% | 28% | 2.75 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 35% | 46% | 2.87 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AC Milan +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 51% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 49% | 2.21 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · AC Milan |
| 29' | 🟨 | Arthur Cabral · ACF Fiorentina |
| 35' | 🟨 | Junior Messias · AC Milan |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · ACF Fiorentina |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pierre Kalulu · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 611.00 | 1250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1755.04 | 1899.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.72 | -18.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.09 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 26.44 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.26 |