← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 50% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Empoli win | 23% | 24% | 4.38 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Empoli −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Over | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 34' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Empoli |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 51' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Empoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Răzvan Marin · Empoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 184.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1632.24 | 1642.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.58 | -11.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 25.37 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.06 |