← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, Feb 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 43% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Antonín Barák · ACF Fiorentina |
| 24' | 🟨 | Josh Doig · Hellas Verona FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · ACF Fiorentina |
| 29' | 🟨 | Antonín Barák · ACF Fiorentina |
| 34' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Arthur Cabral · ACF Fiorentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jayden Braaf · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1572.39 | 1687.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.09 | 15.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.52 |