← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 54% | 59% | 1.79 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
| Spezia win | 20% | 18% | 4.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.96 | value: +12% |
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 22' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eldor Shomurodov · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 270.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1710.87 | 1565.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.23 | -23.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 42.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.82 |