← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 46% | 38% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.41 | value: +30% |
| Salernitana win | 26% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AC Monza +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Domen Črnigoj · Salernitana |
| 48' | 🟨 | Luca Caldirola · AC Monza |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lassana Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · AC Monza |
| 65' | ⚽ | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 68' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 71' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 78' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟥 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 390.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1553.87 | 1651.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.28 | 28.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 26.72 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.19 |