← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 65% | 74% | 1.49 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.45 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Atalanta BC −1.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 60% | 1.83 | value: +10% |
| Under | 46% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Merih Demiral · Atalanta BC |
| 4' | ⚽ | Assan Ceesay · US Lecce |
| 12' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Federico Di Francesco · US Lecce |
| 64' | 🟨 | Antonino Gallo · US Lecce |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alexis Blin · US Lecce |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · US Lecce |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Atalanta BC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2454.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1771.25 | 1590.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.52 | -5.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.66 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.48 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |