← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 70% | 74% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.95 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 10% | 11% | 10.00 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sampdoria +1.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +1.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 69% | 1.86 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Under | 48% | 31% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |