← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | fair |
| Spezia win | 25% | 26% | 4.05 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Empoli −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟥 | Fabiano Parisi · Empoli |
| 24' | 🟨 | Guglielmo Vicario · Empoli |
| 24' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 31' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 33' | 🟨 | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 39' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 49' | 🟥 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Spezia |
| 71' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| ⚽ |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emanuel Vignato · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 255.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1647.24 | 1567.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.45 | -6.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.38 |