← Serie A 2022-23 · Mon, Feb 6, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 19% | 19% | 5.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sampdoria −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.34 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · AC Monza |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Sampdoria |
| 51' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bruno Amione · Sampdoria |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1648.69 | 1539.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.81 | -5.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.24 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.06 |