← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Volpi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 22% | 24% | 4.52 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.09 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand