← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 58% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.91 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 17% | 22% | 6.17 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| US Lecce −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.04 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand