← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 73% | 1.53 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.44 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 14% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Salernitana −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 68' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 76' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luigi Sepe · Salernitana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 516.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1842.67 | 1569.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.04 | -2.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 28.91 |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |