← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Sep 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 47% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.33 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 24% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| AS Roma +0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 51% | 2.07 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sandi Lovrić · Udinese Calcio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 95.00 | 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 5.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1707.96 | 1840.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.47 | 21.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.87 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.61 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |