← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, May 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 51% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.92 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Hellas Verona FC |
| 6' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Hellas Verona FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Hellas Verona FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jovane Cabral · SS Lazio |
| 20' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 23' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Hellas Verona FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicolò Casale · Hellas Verona FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pedro |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 76' | ⚽ | Martin Hongla · Hellas Verona FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Lasagna · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 354.00 |
| 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1746.75 | 1630.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.35 | -2.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 63.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.33 | — |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |