← Serie A 2021-22 · Mon, May 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
| SS Lazio win | 27% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Juventus FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Alex Sandro · SS Lazio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marley Aké · Juventus FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 380.00 |
| 349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1824.37 | 1742.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.48 | 7.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 69.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 9.99 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 29.51 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |