← Serie A 2021-22 · Mon, May 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 62% | 56% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.31 | value: +6% |
| Sampdoria win | 15% | 19% | 6.60 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sampdoria +1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · ACF Fiorentina |
| 15' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alex Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Vieira · Sampdoria |
| 30' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 69' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 83' | ⚽ | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Sampdoria |
| 89' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Sampdoria |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Colley |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 90' | 🟥 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 135.00 |
| 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1551.14 | 1655.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.39 | -21.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 8.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 24.56 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |