← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, May 8, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 40% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 36% | 3.42 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Salernitana −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Franck Ribéry · Salernitana |
| -5' | 🟥 | Boris Radunović · Cagliari Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Emil Bohinen · Salernitana |
| 63' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alessio Cragno · Cagliari Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Simone Verdi · Salernitana |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea · Salernitana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Perotti · Salernitana |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Giorgio Altare · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 96.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1553.03 | 1575.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.26 | -18.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.08 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |