← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, May 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 42% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 31% | 32% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 50% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sofian Kiyine · Venezia FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sofian Kiyine · Venezia FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Aaron Hickey · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Aleš Matějů · Venezia FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Mattia Aramu |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 23 |
| 9 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 645.00 |
| 1223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1442.65 | 1606.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.33 | 40.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| league points | 22.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.48 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |