← Serie A 2021-22 · Thu, May 5, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 49% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
| Venezia FC win | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Salernitana −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Venezia FC |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bonazzoli · Salernitana |
| 52' | 🟨 | Aleš Matějů · Venezia FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Éderson · Salernitana |
| 58' | ⚽ | Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Salernitana |
| 69' | 🟨 | Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Emil Bohinen · Salernitana |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Venezia FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 89' | 🟥 | Ethan Ampadu · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 93.00 |
| 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1503.18 | 1449.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.92 | -25.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 4.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.18 | -1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |