← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, May 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 38% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
| Empoli win | 34% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0.25 | 56% | 1.74 |
| Torino FC +0.25 | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Andrea Pinamonti · Empoli |
| 18' | 🟨 | Mërgim Vojvoda · Torino FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
| 56' | ⚽ | Szymon Żurkowski · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟥 | Valerio Verre · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Petar Stojanović · Empoli |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Petar Stojanović · Empoli |
| 85' | 🟥 | Petar Stojanović · Empoli |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 334.00 |
| 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1552.94 | 1612.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.80 | 30.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |