← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 65% | 55% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.75 | value: +24% |
| Spezia win | 14% | 19% | 7.03 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +1 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Spezia +1 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.44 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 35' | ⚽ | Kevin Agudelo · Spezia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Ivan Provedel · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rey Manaj · Spezia |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Viktor Kovalenko · Spezia |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| ⚽ |
| Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 303.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1583.83 | 1796.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.81 | -10.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.54 | 29.83 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |