← Serie A 2021-22 · Wed, Apr 27, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 63% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 16% | 6.94 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Torino FC −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Torino FC |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Remo Freuler · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Zima · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2156.00 |
| 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1771.58 | 1606.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.79 | 14.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 54.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.22 | 4.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 24.58 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |