← Serie A 2021-22 · Wed, Apr 27, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 58% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.06 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 18% | 20% | 5.90 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +7% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Pablo Marí · Udinese Calcio |
| 16' | 🟨 | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · ACF Fiorentina |
| 80' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1737.24 | 1677.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.50 | 15.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| league points | 56.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.89 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |