← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 41% | 45% | 2.40 | value: +8% |
| SS Lazio win | 31% | 28% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AC Milan +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 8' | 🟨 | Thomas Strakosha · SS Lazio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 50' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pierre Kalulu · AC Milan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 327.00 |
| 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1739.99 | 1832.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.66 | -2.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.87 |
| league points | 56.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.44 | 24.80 |
| state index | 0.65 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |