← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 71% | 78% | 1.36 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.49 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 11% | 6% | 9.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Juventus FC −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Arthur Theate · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 18' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟥 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟥 | Adama Soumaoro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 350.00 |
| 1201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1839.40 | 1578.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.17 | 7.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| league points | 62.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 4.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 25.73 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |