← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 59% | 64% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Empoli win | 17% | 17% | 5.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Udinese Calcio −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.26 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Ardian Ismajli · Udinese Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ardian Ismajli · Empoli |
| 52' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Petar Stojanović · Empoli |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Empoli |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Pinamonti · Empoli |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Empoli |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 136.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1681.75 | 1601.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.58 | -7.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 6.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |