← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 53% | 60% | 1.84 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.63 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Sampdoria −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 6' | ⚽ | Éderson · Salernitana |
| 20' | 🟨 | Milan Đurić · Salernitana |
| 20' | 🟨 | Luigi Sepe · Salernitana |
| 32' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Sampdoria |
| 49' | 🟨 | Federico Bonazzoli · Salernitana |
| 50' | 🟨 | Emil Bohinen · Salernitana |
| 79' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · Salernitana |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pasquale Mazzocchi · Salernitana |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · Salernitana |
| 89' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 105.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1559.82 | 1452.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.34 | -10.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.74 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.31 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |