← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Volpi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 71% | 83% | 1.36 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.39 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 10% | 5% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AS Roma −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Emil Bohinen · Salernitana |
| 21' | 🟨 | Marash Kumbulla · AS Roma |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ivan Radovanović · Salernitana |
| 30' | 🟨 | Milan Đurić · Salernitana |
| 41' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 67' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · Salernitana |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luigi Sepe · Salernitana |
| 75' | 🟨 | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 80' | 🟨 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · AS Roma |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 81' | ⚽ | Carles Pérez · AS Roma |
| 85' | ⚽ | Chris Smalling · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Patrício · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tammy Abraham · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Salernitana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 283.00 |
| 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1755.63 | 1454.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.43 | -6.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.37 | — |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |