← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 46% | 46% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 25% | 28% | 3.89 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Udinese Calcio +0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Michaël Cuisance · Venezia FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · Venezia FC |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Venezia FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Venezia FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nani · Venezia FC |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |
| ⚽ |
| Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 617.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1507.34 | 1674.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.30 | 26.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 27.35 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |