← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +7% |
| SSC Napoli win | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 50% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 35' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | 🟨 | David Ospina · SSC Napoli |
| 81' | ⚽ | Eljif Elmas · SSC Napoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | André Zambo Anguissa · SSC Napoli |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2132.00 | 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1900.59 | 1885.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.53 | -8.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| league points | 51.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 13.72 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 28.79 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |