← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 47% | 54% | 2.19 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 26% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Salernitana +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Federico Bonazzoli · Salernitana |
| 69' | 🟨 | Etrit Berisha · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Éderson · Salernitana |
| 83' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Salernitana |
| 85' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 85' | 🟥 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Singo |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 60.00 |
| 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1462.57 | 1581.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.64 | -9.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 13.20 | 14.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |