← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Venezia FC win | 36% | 29% | 2.73 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 35% | 32% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Venezia FC +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sampdoria +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.96 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 28 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |